Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.524846 2.690707 2.867511 3.070972 3.299870 3.550888 3.849011
2025-03-09 2.269996 2.492501 2.742298 3.046794 3.412604 3.844244 4.402087
2025-03-16 2.116391 2.370388 2.665703 3.040541 3.513062 4.102964 4.919834
2025-03-23 2.022970 2.302647 2.637357 3.077058 3.655299 4.415416 5.540362
2025-03-30 1.912363 2.202177 2.556389 3.033759 3.682179 4.570073 5.958502
2025-04-06 1.817778 2.113379 2.481027 2.987339 3.694581 4.698838 6.351282
2025-04-13 1.722864 2.017650 2.389219 2.909597 3.652750 4.739506 6.605720
2025-04-20 1.681824 1.987734 2.379923 2.941193 3.766357 5.021770 7.310116
2025-04-27 1.654127 1.972826 2.388388 2.996299 3.917322 5.379021 8.226945
2025-05-04 1.627853 1.957803 2.394850 3.047563 4.065550 5.750347 9.269295
2025-05-11 1.578526 1.909227 2.351971 3.022673 4.090163 5.910948 9.917689
2025-05-18 1.533536 1.864435 2.311817 2.998581 4.112766 6.069192 10.605187
2025-05-25 1.489656 1.820191 2.271375 2.973052 4.133359 6.231862 11.373460
2025-06-01 1.449693 1.779812 2.234558 2.950691 4.157151 6.404300 12.234615
2025-06-08 1.417416 1.748766 2.209547 2.944772 4.208128 6.637638 13.364055
2025-06-15 1.398792 1.736008 2.210330 2.979374 4.333598 7.045753 15.238483
2025-06-22 1.360694 1.694181 2.166209 2.938345 4.316833 7.142696 16.140086
2025-06-29 1.324021 1.653228 2.121789 2.894336 4.290726 7.214938 17.001883
2025-07-06 1.281470 1.602641 2.061185 2.820577 4.202813 7.132866 17.231472
2025-07-13 1.267936 1.593472 2.062707 2.850562 4.316343 7.546581 19.825728
2025-07-20 1.260608 1.592927 2.077103 2.902832 4.478390 8.114757 23.798612
2025-07-27 1.252593 1.590996 2.089095 2.951428 4.638070 8.717254 28.970595
2025-08-03 1.228151 1.564014 2.060934 2.927837 4.645245 8.903062 31.822859